http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/ RecentChanges for ninepoints http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/feedlogo.gif http://pbwiki.com/ PBwiki 3.7 support@pbwiki.com http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/FrontPage email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited FrontPage]]> Tue, 16 Oct 2007 21:49:27 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/FrontPage email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited FrontPage If you would like a wiki login, contact Michael Tobis, i.e. the mtobis account on the gmail service.
If I don't know you, you will need to convince me that you have some expertise on climate change in general, or one of the points in particular.
Burton v Gore in 9 Rounds
Apparently, therehasbeenajudgementrenderedintheUK regarding the showing of An Inconvenient Truth in UK public schools, and it's a mixed blessing. A Judge Burton has listed nine points of "guidance" that British teachers must bring to the classroom in order to show the film.
9. Coral reefs.
In scene 19, Mr Gore says: "Coral reefs all over the world because of global warming and other factors are bleaching and they end up like this. All the fish species that depend on the coral reef are also in jeopardy as a result. Overall specie loss is now occurring at a rate 1000 times greater than the natural background rate." The actual scientific view, as recorded in the IPCC report, is that, if the temperatu]]> Tue, 16 Oct 2007 21:47:36 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/low-lying+inhabited+Pacific+atolls email.hidden@example.com (Steve Bloom) Steve Bloom edited low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls Bishop Toohey said climate change was a problem that we simply cannot ignore.
“Whether we like it or not, at the end of the day, this is a problem that we need to do something about because it is not just going to go away,” he said......PNS
Per the Niuewebsite it is more or less part of New Zealand (with a status sounding very similar to that of Puerto Rico relative to the U.S.), and as a consequence of this mostof the residents (NZ citizens) haved emigrated to New Zealand proper. In other wordsNiue is very nearly depopulated, which explains why there's room for Tuvalans (who it would seem are effectively immigrants to New Zealand -- but note the reference in the article to discussions about their post-move "status").
]]> Tue, 16 Oct 2007 00:22:25 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/Sea+level+rise email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited Sea level rise Sea level rise of up to 20 feet (7 metres) will be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland in the near future.
TRANSCRIPT
I want to focus on West Antarctica, because it illustrates two factors about land-based ice and sea-based ice. It's a little of both. It's propped on tops of islands, but the ocean comes up underneath it. So if the ocean gets warmer, it has an impact on it. If this were to go, sea levels worldwide would go up 20 feet. They've measured disturbing changes on the underside of this ice sheet. It's considered relatively more stable, however, than another big body of ice that is roughly the same size. Greenland
In 1992 they measured this amount of melting in Greenland. 10 years later this is what happened. And here is the melting from 2005. Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the map of the world will have to be redrawn.
If Greenland broke up and melted, or if half of Greenland and half of West Antar]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:44:28 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/coral+reefs email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited coral reefs * TheThe film said that coral reefs all over the world were bleaching because of global warming and other factors. The judge said separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution, was difficult difficult
TRANSCRIPT
West Nile Virus came to the eastern shore of Maryland in 1999. Two years later it was across the Mississippi. And two years after that it had spread across the continent. These are very troubling times.
Coral reefs all over ]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:41:22 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/polar+bears email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited polar bears Mr Gore also referred to a study showing that polar bears were being found that had drowned "swimming long distances to find the ice". The judge said: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm"
TRANSCRIPT
So there is a faster build up of heat here at the North Pole in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic generally than any where else on the planet. That's not good for creatures like polar bears that depend on the ice. A new scientific study shows that for the first time they're finding polar bears that have actually drowned, swimming long distances up to 60 miles to find the ice. They did not find that before. What does it mean to us to look at vast expanse of open water at the top of our world that used to be covered by ice? We ought to care a lot because it has planetary effects.
RULING
8. Death of polar bears.
In scene 16, by reference to a dramatic graphi]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:38:31 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/Hurricane+Katrina email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited Hurricane Katrina Mr Gore ascribed Hurricane Katrina to global warming, but there was "insufficient evidence to show that"
TRANSCRIPT
Now I'm going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for tornadoes in the United States. Japan again didn't get as much attention in our news media, but they set an all time record for typhoons. The previous record was seven. Here are all ten of the ones they had in 2004. The science textbooks that have to be re-written because they say it is impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic. It was the same year that the first one that ever hit Brazil. The summer of 2005 is one for the books. The first one was Emily that socked into Yucatan. Then Hurricane Dennis came along and it ]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:34:58 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/Lake+Chad email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited Lake Chad The drying up of Lake Chad was used as an example of global warming. The judge said: "It is apparently considered to be more likely to result from ... population increase, over-grazing and regional climate variability"
THE TRANSCRIPT
Focus most of all on this part of Africa just on the edge of the Sahara. Unbelievable tragedies have been unfolding there and there are a lot reasons for it. Darfur and Niger are among those tragedies and one of the factors that has been compounding this is the lack of rainfall and the increasing drought. This is Lake Chad, once one of the largest lakes in the world. It has dried up over the last few decades to almost nothing. That has been complicating the other problems that they also have. The second reason why this is a paradox: Global warming creates more evaporation of the ocean to seed the clouds, but it sucks moisture out of the soil. Soil evaporation increases dramatically with higher temperatures. And that has consequences for us in the United Stat]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:30:03 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/Mt+Kilimanjaro email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited Mt Kilimanjaro Mr Gore said the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was expressly attributable to human-induced climate change. The judge said the consensus was that that could not be established
TRANSCRIPT
When I went to the Congress in the middle 1970's I helped organize the first hearings on global warming, I asked my professor to be the lead off witness. I thought that would have such a big impact we'd be well on the way to solving this problem, but it didn't work out that way. I kept having hearings, and in 1984 I went to the Senate and really dug deeply into this issue with science round tables and the like. I wrote a book about it. I ran for president in 1988 partly try to gain some visibility for this issue. In 1992 went to the Whitehouse. We passed a version carbon tax and some other measures to try to address this. I went to Kyoto in 1997 to help get a treaty that is so controversial, in the US at least. In 2000 my opponent pledged to regulate the CO2 and that was not a pledge that was kept. The poi]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:24:03 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/low-lying+inhabited+Pacific+atolls email.hidden@example.com (Steve Bloom) Steve Bloom edited low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:23:49 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/low-lying+inhabited+Pacific+atolls email.hidden@example.com (Steve Bloom) Steve Bloom edited low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls I want to focus on West Antarctica, because it illustrates two factors about land-based ice and sea-based ice. It's a little of both. It's propped on tops of islands, but the ocean comes up underneath it. So as the ocean gets warmer, it has an impact on it. If this were to go, sea level worldwide would go up 20 feet. They've measured disturbing changes on the underside of this ice sheet. It's considered relatively more stable, however, than another big body of ice that is roughly the same size.
THE JUDGMENT
2. Low Low lying inhabited Pacific atolls are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming.
In scene 20, Mr Gore states "that's why the citizens of these Pacific nations have all had to evacuate to New Zealand". There is no evidence of any such evacuation having yet happened.
COMMENTARY
so this amounts to evidence of some evacuation. However "have all had to evacuate" does seem excessive. Can someone confirm these words in the movie? Spec]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:22:52 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/an+exact+fit email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited an exact fit Mr Gore had also claimed - by ridiculing the opposite view - that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit". The judge said although scientists agreed there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts"
Note sorry for peculiar formatting, wiki editiing messed up here. Quick fix to make it legible...
THE TRANSCRIPT
Ice Cores: The 650,000 Record
]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:17:42 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/an+exact+fit email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited an exact fit]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:16:41 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/an+exact+fit email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited an exact fit Mr Gore had also claimed - by ridiculing the opposite view - that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit". The judge said although scientists agreed there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts"
THE TRANSCRIPT
Ice Cores: The 650,000 Record
The ice has stories to tell us.My friend Lonnie Thompson digs cores in the ice. They dig down and they bring the core drills back up and they look at the ice and they study it. When the snow falls it traps little bubbles of atmosphere. They can go in and measure how much CO2 was in the atmosphere the year that snow fell. What's even more interesting I think is they can measure the different isotopes of oxygen and figure out the very precise thermometer and tell you what the temperature was the year that bubble was trapped in the snow as it fell.
When I was in Antarctica I saw cores like this and the guy looked at it]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 21:15:45 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/shutting+down+the+ocean+conveyor email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited shutting down the ocean conveyor THE TRANSCRIPT
Earth's Climate is an Engine
the poles. It poles, and t does that by means of ocean current and wind current. They tell us, the scientists do, that the earth climate is a non-linear system. It's a fancy way they have of saying that the changes are not all just gradual. Some of them come suddenly in big jumps. On a world wide basis the annual average temperature is about 58 degrees Fahrenheit. If we have an increase of 5 degrees, which is on the low end of the projection, projections, look at how that translates globally. That means an increase of only 1 degree at the equator but more than 12 degrees at the poles. So all those wind and ocean current patterns that have formed since the last ice age and have been relatively stable, they are all up in the air and they change. One And one of the ones they are most worried about where they have spent a lot of time studying the problem ]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 20:58:21 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/FrontPage email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited FrontPage Are the nine points fair?
That's a bit much for discussion in a list or blog format, so I(mt) set up this wiki. We'll see if this works out or fizzles, or worse, if it takes off too far and I get swamped by administrivia. Consider it an experiment.
Here's the actualruling, (courtesy of Gavin Schmidt, thanks).
HereHere are Judge Burton's nine critiques of Al Gore. Gore, with links to pages in this wiki that discuss each point individually.
GuardianarticlebyDavidAdam, lists eight of Burton's nine points (thanks to Tom Adams for counting!):
The film claimed that low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming" - but there was no evidence of any evacuation occurring
Sea level ris]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 20:48:40 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/shutting+down+the+ocean+conveyor email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited shutting down the ocean conveyor It spoke of global warming "shutting down the ocean conveyor" - the process by which the gulf stream is carried over the north Atlantic to western Europe. The judge said that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it was "very unlikely" that the conveyor would shut down in the future, though it might slow down.
THE TRANSCRIPT
Earth's Climate is an Engine
The earth climate is like a big engine for redistributing heat from the equator to the poles. It does that by means of ocean current and wind current. They tell us, the scientists do, that the earth climate is a non-linear system. It's a fancy way they have of saying that the changes are not all just gradual. Some of them come suddenly in big jumps. On a world wide basis the annual average temperature is about 58 degrees Fahrenheit. If we have an increase of 5 degrees, which is on the low end of the projection, look at how that translates globally. That means an increase of only 1 degree at the equator b]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 20:43:04 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/low-lying+inhabited+Pacific+atolls email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls THE TRANSCRIPT
The Second Canary: Antarctic Peninsula Sea Ice
This brings me to the second canary in the coal mine, Antarctica, the largest mass of ice on the planet by far. A friend of mine said in 1978, "If you see the break up of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula, watch out, because that should be seen as an alarm bell for global warming. And actually, if you look at the peninsula up close, every place where you see one of these green blotches here is an ice shelf larger than the state of Rhode Island that has broken up in just the last 15 to 20 years. I want to focus on just one of them. It's called Larsen B. I want you to look at these black pools here. It makes it seem almost as if we are looking through the ice to the ocean beneath. But that's an illusion. This is melting water that forms in pools. If you were flying over it in a helicopter, you'd see it 700 feet tall. They are so majestic, so massive. In the distance are the mountains, and just before the mountains is the shelf]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 20:37:59 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/FrontPage email.hidden@example.com (Michael Tobis) Michael Tobis edited FrontPage]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 20:26:07 +0000 mod http://ninepoints.pbwiki.com/polar+bears email.hidden@example.com (mt) mt edited polar bears ===
Hmm, what about this report in the London Times? The judge's understanding of this event does not seem in line with the Times report. (Nor does the Times' own subsequent AIT article!)
additional evidence? Now I need to look at the AR4 and see what was there on polar bears, but based on the analysis I just finished on the coral reef bleaching issue (will post on the relevant page) I'm really starting to wonder about the judge's reading comprehension. evidence?
]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2007 11:29:46 +0000 mod